3-month Spring Outlook Released

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NOAA issued the three-month U.S. Spring Outlook today, stating that odds favor above-average temperatures across much of the continental United States, including drought-stricken areas of Texas, the Southwest and the Great Plains. Spring promises little drought relief for most of these areas, as well as Florida, with below- average spring precipitation favored there. Meanwhile, river flooding is likely to be worse than last year across the country, with the most significant flood potential in North Dakota.

What it means for Kansas, after the break.

Taken at surface level, the outlook says spring is expected to be somewhat warmer than normal (50% chance of above-normal temps) with about normal rainfall.

Interestingly, though, I think I’m seeing some indications of a late, long, but fairly normal severe weather season.

Take a look at the April-May-June graphics:

Temperature Outlook, April-June, 2013

Temperature Outlook, April-June, 2013

April -June 2013 Precipitation Outlook

April -June 2013 Precipitation Outlook

Now, look at the same graphics for May-June-July:

May-June-July 2013 Precipitationoutlook

May-June-July 2013 Precipitationoutlook

May-June-July 2013 Temperature Outlook

May-June-July 2013 Temperature Outlook

Here’s my logic:

  • For most of Kansas, April-May-June and May-June-July are expected to be about normal, precipitation-wise.
  • Southern Kansas is in the 50%chance area of above-normal temps for the April-May-June time frame.
  • For May-June-July, the eastern half of the state is in the 40%chance for warmer than normal temps.
  • Matt and I chatted today, and he feels the system that’s had the jet stream locked in place for some time is still locked in for a few more weeks. To me, that means a late start to the season. We’re already past the first time I’ve usually chased in a given year.
  • Normal rainfall and more above-normal temperature days than not…that says to me when the pattern shifts, conditions will become like mid-May pretty quickly and stay that way for a while.

Okay, call it a guess. Call it a gut feeling. But it’s how I (Scott) read this level of data. We’ll see soon enough if I’m (pardon the pun) all wet. Would love to hear your thoughts in the comments.

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