Game-changing improvements in the works for U.S. weather prediction

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“Tide,” the supercomputer that runs the GFS, a US weather model that has been outperformed consistently by the European model which runs on massively more powerful computers. (IMAGE CREDIT: National Weather Service, via Washington Post)

Upgrades to the supercomputer that runs the GFS model are included in the post-Sandy recovery bill.

It will be good when this comes online. when I speak of model differences 5-8 days out from a storm system, these are the two models I’m talking about. There’s a reason the GFS has the nickname “Goofus.”

My gut instinct is the physics upgrade is more important than the increased resolution, but I’m not really qualified to say with certainty. In my opinion the GFS initializes wrong too often. If you start at the wrong place the errors compound as you forecast further in the future.

via Washington Post: Game-changing improvements in the works for U.S. weather prediction.

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