Today holds potential to be a significant storm day across Kansas and Oklahoma. Strong to intense (possibly long-track) tornadoes, very large hail, and severe thunderstorm winds are all likely.
This is our first attempt at multimedia and written briefings, we’d appreciate your comments!
This is the composite risk for today. After this graphic was created, SPC upgraded the tornado percentage to 15% on the western end of the 10% risk area. It will not surprise me if a high risk is posted in the mid-day SPC outlook.
These three images show the primed atmosphere. We talk details in the briefing, but suffice it to say we expect tornadoes to form in the US 283 corridor of western Kansas (mostly south of US 50) bey around 3pm. They will quickly go severe, and some may even exhibit the nearly stationary tendencies we saw last night.But for those storms that are able to remain isolated and get off the dryline, the evening hours hold much potential for strengthening.
The potential for at least one storm to not move much at all is illustrated by the image below. Note also that the nearly-3000 values bloom to the north and east as the lower-level jet comes in after sunset. That pushes the tornado risk further east, and we believe it may reach the Wichita area.
Bottom line: be extremely weather-aware south of US 50 and west of I-135, and especially so in the US-54 corridor.
Strong. long-track tornadoes and hail to 4″ are risks we’re anticipating.
Initial target: Meade, KS.