Risk/Target Brief, May 29

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The written briefing will be fairly short this morning, but I’m going to try to pack in the essential information. Matt and Iwill be recording a multimedia discussion around 8:30 this morning…I hope to have it posted by 9:30.

Among the things we plan to highlight and unpack in that discussion:

Today’s Risk graphics:

The scenario has some potential to play out like last night did in a couple of locations….most likely in southwest Kansas. One model indicates a continual bubble of enhanced tornado parameters south of Dodge City for several hours, with almost no movement. Here’s an image of one parameter in that particular model:

4_LI 0z

Another model, which we’ll show half-day loop of during the multimedia briefing, shows a very early start in southwest Kansas(maybe as early as 1pm), with the system throwing off a line of storms, the southern edge of which would track into the Wichita metro about 7.

All that makes for a forecast and a chase strategy that is, at the same time, simple (there will be storms, and some will have tornadoes) and complex (stationary vs. moving, rural area or metro). We’ll hash it out and post the discussion, later this morning.

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