WaPo: An Utterly Amazing Forecast on Yesterday’s Storms, Especially in Arkansas

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An incredible, saddening day yesterday. But unlike the difficulty of the day-before-the-day (non-) event in Kansas, forecasting on yesterday’s system was spot-on — not just a day out, but several days out.

(SPC, Greg Carbin, via Washington Post)

A remarkable graphic produced Saturday evening…nearly 24 hours in advance…drew a near-bullseye on Mayflower and vicinity.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) couldn’t have done a better job identifying in advance the Arkansas zone where devastating tornadoes claimed at least 10 lives along a 80-mile path of destruction.  The precision-forecasting and efforts to warn undoubtedly saved many lives, but the gut-wrenching toll proves our best science only goes so far.

via Arkansas tornado outbreak amazingly well forecast, despite horrifying outcome.