Two words… THE CAP
[The] cap is a section of the atmosphere where temperatures briefly increase with height, which is usually in the middle levels of the atmosphere. This cap creates a stable layer that unstable air below it has to try to break through in order to create a storm.
More of the models show an incredible cap developing than show it weakening enough, in the right place and at the right time. If you’re interested, this article explains why it’s such a big deal.
An argument can be made that the cap won’t weaken enough for any storms at all. But I’m thinking the forward movement of the cold front (to the southeast) will be enough to overcome the cap for a tight line of storms. The general mode of linear storms is wind and hail. Tomorrow may bust in the daytime, but I don’t think we make it through 10pm without confirmed severe storms in central Kansas.