A storm system is expected to rake parts of Missouri and Illinois, before moving into the mid-South on Wednesday. Here is the NAM model output of maximum updraft helicity tomorrow.

NAM model output for Maximum Updraft Helicity, valid 2/28/17. Image credit: Pivotal Weather

NAM model output for Maximum Updraft Helicity, valid 2/28/17. Image credit: Pivotal Weather

(h/t Michael Phelps)

It’s important not to get tied up in looking at the specific placement of the “tracks,” but to be more attuned to the pattern of storms along pretty narrow, distinct lines from central Missouri to much of Indiana.

On the back side of the system there is some risk for storms in Kansas.

Marginal to slight risk for severe storms 2/28/17 south and east of a line from near Atchison to near Independence

Marginal to slight risk for severe storms 2/28/17 south and east of a line from near Atchison to near Independence

I feel the risk for the counties in yellow is primarily hail, of the 1/2″ to 1.5″ variety. Maybe some low-end severe wind. I don’t see tornadoes in Kansas on the last day of February, unless it’s a brief, weak spinner.

Our regular storm briefings begin next Monday, March 6

Monday is also the first day of Severe Weather Awareness Week. I have several itemes queued up to post to help us all get prepared for the upcoming season.