All along, nearly everyone who has been forecasting this patch of severe weather has pointed at Wednesday as the day. I do believe there will be more severe weather reported on Wednesday than on Tuesday, but I’ve come to think the damaging severe weather is more likely today. It’ll affect a far smaller geographic area.

As another of my chaser friends said last night, today is going to be a zoo near the triple point. First meaningful severe storm of the plains season, six extra weeks of Storm Deprivation Syndrome, you name it — those factors and the fact there’s pretty much a single bullseye on a 50-75 mile circle probably means issues on the roads. The target area does tend to be fairly friendly to chasers, but that might get a little of a tarnish after today.

Here are the updated outlook graphics:

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And I have one model loop to show you — this is from the NAM NEST, and is a simulated radar depiction from 4pm Tuesday until 10pm. Pay attention to central Kansas and north central Kansas, starting in the Great Bend vicinity and going northeast to maybe US-81 before it becomes a grunge fest.

Yes, the storms are going to be moving at a decent clip. The images are on a 1-hour interval.

This model showed some interesting development along the dryline early in the day, and one model shows an interesting convergence down on the OK state line about 10pm. I’m not as interested in that area as I had been previously, though. I think we’ll end up near Great Bend, working up to maybe Lincoln or so. A lot may depend on traffic.

I think as the day goes on we’ll see the enhanced area take on a smaller, more defined shape. It’s pretty broad-brush right now.

How to watch the live stream:

  • will give you a couple options of views. These views will be up first, probably by 3pm.
  • You can also see my stream on the Zoom Radar app: Apple Android
  • My live stream is also on KWCH-DT2 (Always on Storm Team 12) and on KWCH when necessary.
  • Finally, if you’d like to join along with full-motion video *and* audio, become a KSStormInfo Insider!

Have a safe day!