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This update will be briefer than the last two, as the factors mentioned earlier have remained pretty much the same. Winter weather advisories have been issued for another row of counties east of the old Winter Storm Watch. The entire Winter Storm Watch area was upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.

Primary effects of this system will be felt in a band from near Garden City and Dodge City through Hays, Russell, Beloit and to the northeast. As I write this at 5:25am, snow has already started in Garden City, with what appears on security video to be half an inch to an inch accumulating.

The Weather Prediction Center snow accumulation probability maps have shifted only slightly from yesterday. There is now a small area where there’s a 10% change for snowfall of equal to or greater than 12 inches is possible.

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It looks from these maps like the worst areas will be from just north of Garden City to north of Scott City and Ness City, and I expect to see widespread 6 to 8 inch reports in that area.

Combined with wind gusts to greater than 60 miles an hour and sustained wind in the 40-45 mph range, blizzard to whiteout conditions are expected.

The NWS Dodge City forecast area is where the bullseye looks to be, so here is their Situation Report:

DDC Sat SitRep

My guideline times

These are the times I recommend against any but essential travel. Seriously, stay indoors if your reason for being out doesn’t have to do with a work requirement or life and death. In these conditions, especially in rural areas, it will truly become a matter of life or death. Expect visibility on the order of a few feet in rural areas in these time frames:

South of I-70 and west of US-83: 6am to noon

US-83 West of a Hays to Dodge City line:8am to 2pm

from the above to North of US-400 and west of K-14: 10am-4pm

from the above to north of US-50 and west of I-135: 11am to 6pm

from the above to north of US 56 and west of I-35: 1pm -6pm

Wichita metro: hazardous driving from noon through 6-8pm. With only 1-2 inches of snow expected, I don’t think there will be blizzard conditions, but caution is advised.

I should note, the above are only the times I expect it to be worse. Hazardous driving conditions already exist in much of the state due to snow, mist, and fog.

Further updates today on Facebookbe safe!