After listening to a pair of conference calls, everything is still on as it pertains to a severe weather outbreak this afternoon and tonight.
The NWS in Dodge City says the extreme eastern part of their forecast area (Pratt, St. John, Medicine Lodge) stands the greatest chance of severe weather. They say hail to grapefruit size is the main threat. The tornado threat in their area is dependent on the location of the dryline.
For Wichita and the rest of Central Kansas, the National Weather Service has dialed down the threat of strong, long-tracked tornadoes just a smidge. They say any tornado threat will be mitigated to any storms that turn to the right of the mean flow (storms will be moving from south to north this afternoon). Like their Dodge City counterparts, the Wichita office is extremely concerned about very large to giant hail falling with any storms that develop.
There is still some model discrepancy, but it appears the storms may happen in several waves. One round will initiate with on the dryline between 3 and 5 pm. A second round will move into the area with the upper energy, and that should happen generally after 7pm. With all of the storms today, very large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main threats.
Finally, a flood threat will exist with these storms, given the very high dewpoints across the area. So, remember to turn around, don’t drown.
Scott will be out in the field this afternoon.