Wednedsay Risk Refines, Increases Slightly

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Risk Overview

Valid Starting Tuesday March 29, 2016 12:00 am
Expires Thursday March 31, 2016 6:00 am

Primary Risk Hail

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Hail
Wind
Tornado

Total Severe Weather Risk
Potential Impact
Forecaster Confidence Likely

Summary

The models are lining up behind a fairly similar solution now. Except for the GFS -- Goofus as some of us like to call it from time to time. SPC even says it's throwing out the GFS this go-round in favor of the combined solution of the other models.

That said, it's a challenging forecast, even for the pros. They would have liked to have tightened down the risk area in a few places and perhaps added an area of enhanced risk...but there's just enough difference in timing and other factors to prevent it this time around. I suspect we might see an area of enhanced risk added in the SPC outlook later in the day...but I'd be equally expecting to see no change until the Day 1 outlook is issued tomorrow morning.

Bottom line is...I intend to chase Wednesday...and I have a pretty good idea where.

Details