Hail, Heavy Rain a Decent Bet, Tornadoes More Conditional

   0 minute to read

Risk Overview

Valid Starting Sunday May 8, 2016 8:00 am
Expires Sunday May 8, 2016 11:00 pm

Primary Risk Hail

Other Risks Thunderstorms

Total Severe Weather Risk
Potential Impact
Forecaster Confidence Likely


The storms moving through south central Kansas this morning will play one role in whether there are higher-end severe weather this afternoon, especially anywhere east of K-14, or an Lyons to Anthony line. They may leave behind air that is "worked over" -- the energy already spent -- and not enough time for sunshine and return moisture flow to rebuild instability.

Further west, say anywhere along a line from Dighton through Dodge City to Ashland and south into Oklahoma, a dryline will provide a focus mechanism for storm initiation. The main question is whether enough moisture will be in place. Most models are showing 63 to 68 degree dewpoints between 4pm and 7pm -- but morning observations have that kind of moisture still well south of the Red River. The most common thinking is that a 63 dewpoint will be optimistic, and we may be looking at closer to 60. That would significantly reduce the tornado threat.