The storms moving through south central Kansas this morning will play one role in whether there are higher-end severe weather this afternoon, especially anywhere east of K-14, or an Lyons to Anthony line. They may leave behind air that is "worked over" -- the energy already spent -- and not enough time for sunshine and return moisture flow to rebuild instability.
Further west, say anywhere along a line from Dighton through Dodge City to Ashland and south into Oklahoma, a dryline will provide a focus mechanism for storm initiation. The main question is whether enough moisture will be in place. Most models are showing 63 to 68 degree dewpoints between 4pm and 7pm -- but morning observations have that kind of moisture still well south of the Red River. The most common thinking is that a 63 dewpoint will be optimistic, and we may be looking at closer to 60. That would significantly reduce the tornado threat.