All Aboard the Hype Train!

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Risk Overview

Valid Starting Friday April 22, 2016 12:00 am
Expires Wednesday April 27, 2016 3:00 am

Primary Risk Thunderstorms

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Flash Flooding

Total Severe Weather Risk
Potential Impact
Forecaster Confidence Likely


You have no doubt been hearing from several directions that Tuesday could be a bad day, weather-wise. Yes, yes it could. But remember, for any one location the probability is still more than twice as high that severe weather will NOT occur within 25 miles than the probability it would happen.

Having as strong a signal as there is concerning severe weather on Tuesday gives us all time to be patient and thorough in our preparations. That's why I'll be updating many of our preparation-related posts over the weekend and not focusing so much on whatever changes may occur day-to-day in the outlook.

At this point (Thursday evening) it looks like parts of Kansas (mostly central) could see some severe weather on Sunday -- primary risks would be wind and hail. There's a higher-than-usual uncertainty concerning this potential, though, as models indicate the various ingredients needed for supercells may not arrive in the same place at the same time.

Tuesday, however, is a different story. Models have been quite consistent for the past few days on the right ingredients coming together at the same place at the right time.

Stopping at this point and putting the meteorological discussion in the fuzzed-out part of the post is a decision on my part to not board the hype train. The information above is really all most of us need at this point...we have a beautiful weekend upcoming and should enjoy it, not live in fear of what could happen Tuesday. I do hope you'll share the post, but I caution strongly against getting too tied up in the details right now.


One Response

  1. Marla Jo Dale Rogge April 22, 2016