Day3 Detailed Briefing for May 17, 2019

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Risk Overview

Valid Starting Wednesday May 15, 2019 12:00 am
Expires Saturday May 18, 2019 6:00 am

Primary Risk Hail

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Flash Flooding

Total Severe Weather Risk Slight
Potential Impact Medium
Forecaster Confidence Likely


Will the day-before-the-day event be a sleeper for this system? I have a feeling it will be. Right now the SPC Enhanced risk areas are in Nebraska along the forecast warm front and in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles along the dry line.

A strong low pressure system is forecast to develop in northeast Colorado to northwest Kansas. That will help pull moisture into Kansas, bringing mid-60's dew points in the western half of the state by late afternoon. A moderate cap should be in place, possibly delaying storm initiation until nearer sunset (let's say 6-7pm). All severe weather hazards are possible, not only from storms that may stay parked along the dryline for a couple hours, but from a developing cluster of storms forecast to bring threats into the early morning hours Saturday. In fact, there may be precipitation and even some small hail after sunrise for a few hours.

Friday night will be a time to ensure your weather alert radio has fresh batteries and to be sure to sleep with it on!