Early May: Almost Daily Severe Threat

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Risk Overview

Valid Starting Monday May 6, 2019 7:00 am
Expires Tuesday May 7, 2019 1:00 am

Primary Risk Flooding

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Hail
Wind
Tornado
Flash Flooding

Total Severe Weather Risk Slight
Potential Impact Medium
Forecaster Confidence Likely

Summary

As of 7am, it appears an arcing line of storms will form over the northern Texas panhandle into southwest and possibly south central Kansas after 3pm with very large hail and a few tornadoes. The positioning of the cold front will be the determiner of where the highest risk will be.

Further east, where the air was worked over last night, some uncertainty exists over how quickly the front pushed south by the storms will retreat back north as a warm front. Right now it appears somewhere between the south Kansas line and maybe US-50 would be favored. Along that lifting front, some pockets may exist in south central Kansas where the better moisture combines with the lift over the retreating front and any subtle wind shifts left form last night's storms to bring the possibility of large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes.

The tornado threat will be higher in discrete storms from Salina south and west to the state lines. North central/northeast Kansas could see some brief spinups along the cold front as it noses south. Hence SPC has put in a 5% tornado risk area for the Flint Hills.

Details

4 Comments

  1. Michael Clark May 6, 2019
  2. Debbie Henke May 6, 2019
  3. Sandra Adams May 6, 2019
  4. Jeremy Black May 6, 2019