Friday Target: Mostly Unchanged

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Risk Overview

Valid Starting Friday April 15, 2016 4:00 am
Expires Saturday April 16, 2016 4:00 am

Primary Risk Hail

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Hail
Wind
Tornado
Flash Flooding

Total Severe Weather Risk
Potential Impact
Forecaster Confidence Likely

Summary

Some interesting discussion among the weather service offices in the past 12 hours or so, with one mentioning the similarity between this setup and the "cold-core low" setup that has been a subject of much research by Jon Davies and others. It's more difficult to pinpoint much ahead of time where the tornadic storms will end up forming because they are often much smaller storms and don't extend nearly as high into the atmosphere as a typical supercell would.

Given that possibility and the distance the target area is from the nearest radars (the beam from the closest radar passes about 3 miles overhead at Syracuse, for example), information from storm chasers may become quite important in the warning decision-making process this afternoon and evening. The radar will only get a couple of slices of the storms, and won't be able to see what is going on in that bottom 3 miles...conceivably the entire height of a tornado in this scenario.

That said, I believe damaging hail will be the larger economic risk tonight. We're still not looking for the monster hail like they saw near Dallas...there just isn't enough moisture to work with while the good dynamics are in place. As the low gets stuck over the next several days, very heavy rain will become the risk, wich chances for flash flooding starting in some locations as early as Saturday afternoon.

Details

One Response

  1. Jeremy Black April 15, 2016