I-70 and US 183 corridors of most interest to me Tuesday

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Risk Overview

Valid Starting Tuesday May 1, 2018 3:00 am
Expires Wednesday May 2, 2018 1:00 am

Primary Risk Hail

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Hail
Wind
Tornado
Flash Flooding

Total Severe Weather Risk Enhanced
Potential Impact Medium
Forecaster Confidence Likely

Summary

There’s remarkable consistency between the models in treatment of the dryline and CAPE/Crossover evolutions. It looks like we’re on track for a number of storms Tuesday. The higher-end storms are more likely from I-70 north, where a strong tornado or two are possible, along with hail to hen-egg size.

The chances for storms along the dryline are more conditional – but those are the chances I usually play. I’ll be a little more in-tune as the time frame comes into the domain of the high-resolution, hourly update models Tuesday morning. But the NAM 4km, which is a convection-allowing model, shows a couple of isolated storms witin 40 miles of a Hays – Russell – Great Bend triangle by 4-5pm, with a line developing south along US-183 by 7pm. Interestingly, an isolated storm is shown at the triple point near Hays again around 10pm.

Details

16 Comments

  1. Jasper Haskin April 30, 2018
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    • KSStorm Info April 30, 2018
    • Scott Hamel April 30, 2018
  9. Victoria Draper May 1, 2018