There’s remarkable consistency between the models in treatment of the dryline and CAPE/Crossover evolutions. It looks like we’re on track for a number of storms Tuesday. The higher-end storms are more likely from I-70 north, where a strong tornado or two are possible, along with hail to hen-egg size.
The chances for storms along the dryline are more conditional – but those are the chances I usually play. I’ll be a little more in-tune as the time frame comes into the domain of the high-resolution, hourly update models Tuesday morning. But the NAM 4km, which is a convection-allowing model, shows a couple of isolated storms witin 40 miles of a Hays – Russell – Great Bend triangle by 4-5pm, with a line developing south along US-183 by 7pm. Interestingly, an isolated storm is shown at the triple point near Hays again around 10pm.