Larger Enhanced Risk Area now includes about 1/3 of Kansas

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Risk Overview

Valid Starting Wednesday April 17, 2019 12:00 am
Expires Thursday April 18, 2019 3:00 am

Primary Risk Hail

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Hail
Wind
Tornado
Flash Flooding

Total Severe Weather Risk Enhanced
Potential Impact Medium
Forecaster Confidence Likely

Summary

A complex system is about to be felt across the plains. The pattern of the low pressure areas and the various fronts has a similar appearance to one of those winter systems that causes problems in many states. The SPC has trimmed risks on the northeast side, while expanding the Enhanced risk area into the southeastern 1/3 of the state.

As I mentioned yesterday, the strong SW to NE angle of this front, in relation to the ground-level wind, is going to put some challenges in development of tornadoes. Winds in the 3,000 to 15,000 foot area tend to work back to the southeast, causing a veer-back-veer profile. I explain below why this tends to cut the middle out of updrafts.

Bottom line, if the details aren't that big a deal for you, is that Kansas south of US-400 is likely to experience large (quarter-size) to significant (ping pong ball, hen egg, golf ball size or larger) hail accompanied by wind from about 60mph to 70+ at times.

Details

16 Comments

  1. Corby Miller April 17, 2019
    • KSStorm Info April 17, 2019
    • Corby Miller April 17, 2019
    • Aaron Fox April 17, 2019
    • KSStorm Info April 17, 2019
  2. Michael Stein April 17, 2019
  3. Michael Stein April 17, 2019
  4. Sarah Ince April 17, 2019
    • KSStorm Info April 17, 2019
    • Sarah Ince April 17, 2019
  5. Devon Nicole April 17, 2019
  6. Glen Stallard April 17, 2019
    • Kaitlyn Stallard April 17, 2019
  7. Joycelyn Johnson-Deacons April 17, 2019
  8. Amanda Gibson April 17, 2019