Turn Around, don't drown graphic.. Credit: NWS

Limited Severe, But a LOT of Rain!


Risk Overview

Turn Around, don't drown graphic.. Credit: NWS

Valid Starting
Friday May 19, 2017 9:00 am
Expires
Saturday May 20, 2017 12:00 am
Primary Risk
Flooding
Other Risks
  • Thunderstorms
  • Hail
  • Wind
  • Flash Flooding
  • River Flooding

Total Severe Weather Risk

Marginal



Potential Impact


Medium

Lead Tracker Scott Roberts‘s Confidence


Likely

Summary

Yesterday's storms fired early and developed into a very messy blob (not an official weather term) of storms that has continued to produce heavy rain in parts of the state overnight. The low pressure system and cold front are over Kansas this morning and expected to push east and out of the area by mid-day Saturday. Ground statewide is saturated, with much standing water in fields and ditches, and many rivers nearing bank-full. As much as an inch of rain an hour may fall in some areas southeast of the Turnpike today. The messy, multi-cell structure of the system keeps the atmosphere in a worked-over state where severe weather has difficulty forming.

The details below include animations of the forecast rainfall amounts through 7pm Saturday and where low-end severe weather could happen Friday afternoon.


Details

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Models show copious rainfall in the next 36 hours. Here are animations of two models: the GFS, at a 6-hourly update rate, and the NAM NEST, at an hourly update rate.

GFS

GFS Forecast Precipitation, Friday morning through Saturday 7pm at 6-hour intervals.

GFS Forecast Precipitation, Friday morning through Saturday 7pm at 6-hour intervals.

NAM NEST

NAM NEST Precipitation from Friday morning through 7pm Saturday, hourly interval

Severe Weather Potential

This image shows one model’s forecast of a slightly higher value for the Supercell Composite index (red areas) along and just southeast of the Kansas Turnpike at 2pm Friday. This signal persists through 4pm and moves northeast along the Turnpike before dissipating near Topeka.

Supercell Composite parameter forecast, NAM NEST, valid 2pm CDT Friday

Supercell Composite parameter forecast, NAM NEST, valid 2pm CDT Friday