Maybe Four Days of Severe Weather to Start May

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Risk Overview

Valid Starting Saturday April 28, 2018 12:00 am
Expires Friday May 4, 2018 2:00 am

Primary Risk Thunderstorms

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Hail
Wind
Tornado
Flash Flooding

Total Severe Weather Risk Enhanced
Potential Impact Medium
Forecaster Confidence Possible

Summary

If you had to choose one day of the group to be most weather-aware, it would be Wednesday. I'm not stepping up to the "Outbreak" wording for Wednesday yet, for one simple reason -- the models which allow for the effects of Tuesday's storms aren't yet producing output for Wednesday. That means it's anybody's guess what outflow boundaries might be roaming the range, so it's hard to say if the dryline will retrograde and push the risk area back some to the west. It's impossible to say right now where the localized disturbances caused by outflow, heavy rain and more will setup. What is pretty plain is the air aloft will have nearly all the right ingredients for whatever happens to be fairly high-end.

The two biggest challenges I see with the entire setup is the likelihood of overnight storms (particularly an MCS) affecting part of Kansas Tuesday, and the chance things could get going fairly early in the day Wednesday.

Details

2 Comments

  1. KC April 28, 2018
  2. KC April 28, 2018
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