Risk Briefing, Sunday 4/24/16

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Risk Overview

Valid Starting Saturday April 23, 2016 12:00 am
Expires Monday April 25, 2016 2:00 am

Primary Risk Hail

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Hail
Wind
Tornado

Total Severe Weather Risk
Potential Impact
Forecaster Confidence Likely

Summary

I believe hail will be the primary economic risk from this storm day. Moisture recovery looks good, but there is some question whether the cap may be just a little too strong to allow storms to get going. If they can get going, and if they remain supercellular rather than lining out, the storms could produce some tornadoes.

Primary time frame for tornado development would be sunset give or take a couple hours, so from about 6pm to about 10pm. In those hours, the low-level jet -- a boost in the low level winds usually caused by the cooling around sunset -- would serve to give any supercells a bit of additional spin.

Details

3 Comments

  1. Jeremy Black April 23, 2016
  2. Storm Chaser Scott Roberts April 23, 2016
    • Jeremy Black April 23, 2016