Moisture return continues to be a challenge to early-season severe weather in Kansas. A low pressure system is forecast to form in northwest Kansas or northeast Colorado early Sunday and move a bit north of east across the northern few counties of Kansas. A cold front will trail to the south and southwest of the low, which should activate what Gulf moisture has begun to return. It appears wind will be from the south to southwest at most levels of the atmosphere, especially in the lower levels where it will inhibit tornado development. Tornadoes are possible but not very likely. Hail and wind are the bigger threats.
As for the latter part of next week, there is still quite a bit of disagreement among the models, but one is currently showing indications of severe storm risks, including a better possibility of tornadoes, in the Friday-Saturday time frame.