Tornado Probability is pegged currently at 30% from Dodge City to Andover and from LaCrosse, Hoisington and Lindsborg south into Oklahoma. 15% probabilities surround that, including locations such as Eureka, Emporia, Salina, Hays, Ness City, Cimarron and Meade. In all the above areas, SPC forecasters state that EF-2 to EF-5 tornadoes are possible, with several strong, long-track tornadoes expected.
Severe Hail Probability is forecast at 45% from Ashland to Dodge City, Jetmore, La Crosse, Lyons, McPherson, Newton and Wichita south into Oklahoma. The 30% probability area adds very little on the west, pulling in Dighton and WaKeeney, around north of Russell and Minneapolis and including Salina, Abilene, Manhattan, Topeka, Emporia, Iola, and Independence. A 10% probability of significant hail (larger than 2" -- golfball to hen's egg size) covers the entire 45% area plus Dighton, WaKeeney, Hays, Russell, Minneapolis, Salina, Marion, El Dorado and Ark City/Winfield. The significant hail area extends south and west to the Abilene, TX area.
There is presently no significant wind area defined, but severe-level wind (greater than 58 miles an hour) are pegged at 30% in all the communities listed above.