This is what I was afraid of

   1 minute to read

Risk Overview

Valid Starting Thursday May 18, 2017 1:00 am
Expires Friday May 19, 2017 2:00 am

Primary Risk Tornado

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Hail
Wind
Tornado
Flash Flooding

Total Severe Weather Risk
Potential Impact
Forecaster Confidence Likely

Summary

Tornado Probability is pegged currently at 30% from Dodge City to Andover and from LaCrosse, Hoisington and Lindsborg south into Oklahoma. 15% probabilities surround that, including locations such as Eureka, Emporia, Salina, Hays, Ness City, Cimarron and Meade. In all the above areas, SPC forecasters state that EF-2 to EF-5 tornadoes are possible, with several strong, long-track tornadoes expected.

Severe Hail Probability is forecast at 45% from Ashland to Dodge City, Jetmore, La Crosse, Lyons, McPherson, Newton and Wichita south into Oklahoma. The 30% probability area adds very little on the west, pulling in Dighton and WaKeeney, around north of Russell and Minneapolis and including Salina, Abilene, Manhattan, Topeka, Emporia, Iola, and Independence. A 10% probability of significant hail (larger than 2" -- golfball to hen's egg size) covers the entire 45% area plus Dighton, WaKeeney, Hays, Russell, Minneapolis, Salina, Marion, El Dorado and Ark City/Winfield. The significant hail area extends south and west to the Abilene, TX area.

There is presently no significant wind area defined, but severe-level wind (greater than 58 miles an hour) are pegged at 30% in all the communities listed above.

Details

374 Comments

  1. Josh Pew May 18, 2017
  2. Josh Pew May 18, 2017
  3. Shelle Stancer May 18, 2017
  4. Samoa Fili May 18, 2017
  5. Colton Hudy May 18, 2017
  6. Felicia Bundy May 18, 2017
    • KSStorm Info May 18, 2017
    • Felicia Bundy May 18, 2017
    • KSStorm Info May 18, 2017
    • KSStorm Info May 18, 2017
    • KSStorm Info May 18, 2017
    • Felicia Bundy May 18, 2017
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    • Chris Barth May 18, 2017
    • Felicia Bundy May 18, 2017
    • Chris Barth May 18, 2017
    • Melissa Dearth-Foote May 18, 2017
    • George van Steenburgh May 18, 2017
    • Rebekah Ridenour May 18, 2017
    • Rick Klestinez May 18, 2017
    • Felicia Bundy May 18, 2017
    • Felicia Bundy May 18, 2017
    • Trish Luna May 18, 2017
    • Heidi Metz Hyde May 18, 2017
    • Pamela Hoke- Moxley May 18, 2017
    • Felicia Bundy May 18, 2017
    • Jenna Applebee May 18, 2017
    • Felicia Bundy May 18, 2017
    • Jennifer Lea Farres May 18, 2017
    • Paula Bailey Yaussi May 18, 2017
  7. Jason Cole May 18, 2017
  8. Shane Link May 18, 2017
  9. Pamela Gonzalez Luna May 18, 2017
  10. Jay Smith May 18, 2017
  11. Miguel Davila May 18, 2017
  12. Brian Carroll May 18, 2017
  13. Cynthia Villalobos May 18, 2017
  14. Rindi LaTurner May 18, 2017
  15. Danielle Ray May 18, 2017
  16. Nancy Fruechting May 18, 2017
  17. Nancy Fruechting May 18, 2017
  18. Brenda Lebbin May 18, 2017
  19. Paul Porter May 18, 2017
    • Joseph Gonzalez May 18, 2017
    • Michael Mann May 18, 2017
    • Michael Mann May 18, 2017
    • Kendra Elizabeth May 18, 2017
    • Kendra Elizabeth May 18, 2017
    • Justin Kern May 18, 2017
    • Justin Kern May 18, 2017
  20. Corey Schroedter May 18, 2017
  21. Jacob Scott May 18, 2017
  22. Christina Lowery York May 18, 2017
  23. Bob Collins May 18, 2017
    • Melissa Welty McMullin May 18, 2017
    • Matt Boyer May 18, 2017
  24. Jackie Gibbs May 18, 2017
  25. Matt Garvey May 18, 2017
  26. Janet Galan May 18, 2017
  27. Gaby Jiménez Ureña May 18, 2017
  28. Jessica Woodruff May 18, 2017
  29. Bryanne Quinalty May 18, 2017
  30. Tracy Cooper May 18, 2017
  31. Zac Correll May 18, 2017
    • KSStorm Info May 18, 2017
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    • Zac Correll May 18, 2017
    • Zac Correll May 18, 2017
    • Christine L Evans May 18, 2017
    • Tracee Kissell May 18, 2017
    • Tracee Kissell May 18, 2017
    • Robin Zatterstrom May 18, 2017
    • Robin Zatterstrom May 18, 2017
  32. Jill Mercer Jones May 18, 2017
  33. Rhonda Beeson Green May 18, 2017
    • Regina Cortner May 18, 2017
    • Regina Cortner May 18, 2017
    • Paula Bailey Yaussi May 18, 2017
    • Valerie Kubiak May 18, 2017
  34. Tanner Nicks May 18, 2017
  35. Tommy Martinez May 18, 2017
  36. Sheri Spader May 18, 2017
  37. Devon Nicole May 18, 2017
  38. Connie Jacobs May 18, 2017
  39. Meranda Norez May 18, 2017
  40. Devon Nicole May 18, 2017
  41. Krista Aguilera May 18, 2017
  42. Courtney Eales May 18, 2017
  43. Marisol Ruiz May 18, 2017
  44. Tessa Romero-Blood May 18, 2017
  45. Jeffrey Don Wilson May 18, 2017
  46. Connie Holsted May 18, 2017
  47. Michelle Lott May 18, 2017
  48. Alma Garcia May 18, 2017
  49. Bethany Bolton May 18, 2017
    • Tyler Greene May 18, 2017
    • Bethany Bolton May 18, 2017
    • Randy Stephanie Bolton May 18, 2017
    • Bethany Bolton May 18, 2017
    • Randy Stephanie Bolton May 18, 2017
  50. Taylor Jo Douglas May 18, 2017
  51. Katie Rasmussen May 18, 2017
  52. Rachel Ortiz May 18, 2017
    • Chelsea Onalfo May 18, 2017
    • Chelsea Onalfo May 18, 2017
  53. Josh Tetrick May 18, 2017
  54. Reba Kohn May 18, 2017
  55. Kayla Cordes May 18, 2017
  56. Michelle Fisher May 18, 2017
  57. Brendan Kimball May 18, 2017
  58. Jurnee Silmon May 18, 2017
  59. Samantha Borrowman May 18, 2017
  60. Liliana Zavala-Montoya May 18, 2017
  61. Reggie Kern May 18, 2017
  62. Mallory Kitiara Smith May 18, 2017
  63. Clay Wood May 18, 2017
    • KSStorm Info May 18, 2017
    • KSStorm Info May 18, 2017
    • Clay Wood May 18, 2017
    • Clay Wood May 18, 2017
  64. Fran A Ramirez May 18, 2017
  65. Fran A Ramirez May 18, 2017
  66. Erik Galindo May 18, 2017
  67. Erik Galindo May 18, 2017
  68. Patricia Doetschman May 18, 2017
  69. Patricia Doetschman May 18, 2017
  70. Jerry Milam May 18, 2017
  71. Jerry Milam May 18, 2017
  72. Maribel Ibarra May 18, 2017
  73. Maribel Ibarra May 18, 2017
  74. Melissa Raelene Dible May 18, 2017
  75. Ruth Kidney May 18, 2017
  76. Ruth Kidney May 18, 2017
  77. Christina Craig May 18, 2017
  78. Christina Craig May 18, 2017
  79. Destiney Webster May 18, 2017
  80. Destiney Webster May 18, 2017
  81. Aimee McClure May 18, 2017
  82. Karissa Lynch May 18, 2017
  83. Karissa Lynch May 18, 2017
  84. Shawna Riley May 18, 2017
  85. Shawna Riley May 18, 2017
  86. Ethan Criqui May 18, 2017
  87. Ethan Criqui May 18, 2017
  88. Ryan Scheffler May 18, 2017
  89. Jose Flores May 18, 2017
  90. Jose Flores May 18, 2017
  91. Connie Klein May 18, 2017
  92. Connie Klein May 18, 2017
  93. Dilansy Tracy May 18, 2017
  94. Dilansy Tracy May 18, 2017
  95. Raymond Martinez Sr. May 18, 2017
  96. Raymond Martinez Sr. May 18, 2017
  97. Ashley Helten-Neises May 18, 2017
  98. Ashley Helten-Neises May 18, 2017
  99. Rj Culver May 18, 2017
  100. Rj Culver May 18, 2017
  101. Kaitlyn Moushey May 18, 2017
  102. Kaitlyn Moushey May 18, 2017
  103. Nickeah Pouncil May 18, 2017
  104. Nickeah Pouncil May 18, 2017
  105. Cesar Flores May 18, 2017
  106. Cesar Flores May 18, 2017
  107. Chelsea Verdecchia May 18, 2017
  108. Chelsea Verdecchia May 18, 2017
  109. Jessica Valenzuela May 18, 2017
  110. Brittany Whisenhunt May 18, 2017
  111. Madison Klusman May 18, 2017
  112. Brooke Day May 18, 2017
  113. Karol McCarron May 18, 2017
  114. Alejandra Ib May 18, 2017
  115. Margaret Pfortmiller May 18, 2017
  116. Yazmmin Paredes May 18, 2017
  117. Mandy Tremblay Bice May 18, 2017
  118. Alexis Raquel Hart May 18, 2017
  119. Wendy Gray May 18, 2017
  120. Donna McAdow Funk May 18, 2017
  121. Jamie Supaxo Cole May 18, 2017
  122. Morgan Atkinson May 18, 2017
  123. JennieLee Hill May 18, 2017
  124. Cynthia Villalobos May 18, 2017
  125. Jane Neill May 18, 2017
  126. Bobbie Osborne May 18, 2017
  127. Kylie Guldner May 18, 2017
    • Kelbi Griswold May 18, 2017
    • Kylie Guldner May 18, 2017
  128. Paula Harry May 18, 2017
  129. Jenny Rowan May 18, 2017
  130. Jenny Rowan May 18, 2017
  131. Kelly McMillen Nagorka May 18, 2017
  132. Kc Ayala May 18, 2017
  133. Amber Fraser May 18, 2017
  134. Kim Taylor May 18, 2017
  135. Tim Reid May 18, 2017
  136. Tabitha McMahon May 18, 2017
  137. Maria Tucker May 18, 2017
  138. Natalie Hicks May 18, 2017
  139. Suzanne Armendariz May 18, 2017
  140. Amy Lynne Gonzales May 18, 2017
  141. Natalie Tselis May 18, 2017
  142. Sarah Nichole May 18, 2017
  143. Jeremy Hutton May 18, 2017
  144. Leanna Cymbala May 18, 2017
  145. Morgan Abasolo May 18, 2017
  146. Vanessa Devora May 18, 2017
  147. Jordan McIntosh May 18, 2017
  148. Melissa Huse Klebs May 18, 2017
  149. Carlie Tapia May 18, 2017
  150. TakYee Leung May 18, 2017
  151. Karla Chrismon May 18, 2017
  152. Kendrah Sutton May 18, 2017
  153. Schuyler Kegan Meitner May 18, 2017
  154. Ashley Hedman May 18, 2017
  155. Brittney Wade May 18, 2017
  156. Mike T. Smith Sr. May 18, 2017
  157. Dustin McGraw May 18, 2017
  158. Dustin McGraw May 18, 2017
  159. Tere Scheuerman Nelson May 18, 2017
  160. Tere Scheuerman Nelson May 18, 2017
  161. Taylour Hayes May 18, 2017
  162. Veronica Amaya May 18, 2017
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  164. Courtney Reimer May 18, 2017
  165. Robert De Leon May 18, 2017
  166. Robert De Leon May 18, 2017
    • Sandi Price Rookus May 18, 2017
    • Sandi Price Rookus May 18, 2017
    • Robert De Leon May 18, 2017
    • Robert De Leon May 18, 2017
  167. Lisa Hartley Meitner May 18, 2017
  168. Tiffany Bialek May 18, 2017
  169. Brandon Griggs May 18, 2017
  170. Barbara Strobel May 18, 2017
  171. Barbara Strobel May 18, 2017
  172. Mickie Hale May 18, 2017
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  174. Daniel Garcia May 18, 2017
  175. Daniel Garcia May 18, 2017
  176. Karen Corson May 18, 2017
  177. Karen Corson May 18, 2017
  178. Angela Tenshi Yates May 18, 2017
  179. Renee Wilson Lehman May 18, 2017
  180. Michael Hunt May 18, 2017
  181. Kaitlyn Hughes May 18, 2017
  182. Kaitlyn Hughes May 18, 2017
  183. Lois Heflin-Witt May 18, 2017
  184. Javier Lemus May 18, 2017
  185. Lhassa Gardner May 18, 2017
    • Andrea Kirk May 18, 2017
  186. Cony Chrystina May 18, 2017
  187. Brandi Schulz May 18, 2017
  188. Sydney Beard May 18, 2017
  189. Nataliya Slobodeniuc May 18, 2017
  190. Kaitlin Manfredonia May 18, 2017
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  192. Jake Tackett May 18, 2017
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  194. Anna Dick May 18, 2017
  195. Jo-Ann Solomita Zimmer May 18, 2017
  196. Cary McCarty May 18, 2017
  197. Phil Irey May 18, 2017
  198. Joyce Thomason May 18, 2017
  199. Carol Nott May 18, 2017
  200. Elizabeth Anderson May 18, 2017
  201. James Brent HelmerJr May 18, 2017
  202. Jo-Ann Solomita Zimmer May 18, 2017