Thursday, May 18, 2017 May Become Known by the Name of a Town in Kansas

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Risk Overview

Valid Starting Wednesday May 17, 2017 4:00 pm
Expires Friday May 19, 2017 3:00 am

Primary Risk Tornado

Other Risks Thunderstorms
Hail
Wind
Tornado
Flash Flooding

Total Severe Weather Risk
Potential Impact
Forecaster Confidence Likely

Summary

The worst tornado days in Kansas end up being known by the name of the community they hit. I see several signs that May 18, 2017 may become known this way. Some of our events have played out much like tomorrow is modeled, at least in the NAM. I'm not going to give in to the temptation to say "this is another (insert town name) setup."

The cold front that slid past us early today comes back north and west as a warm front tomorrow, with ample moisture bringing low clouds to much of southern and eastern Kansas in the morning hours. As the moisture piles up against the warm front and the heat of the day arrives, I think storms will fire. I'm most concerned about any storm that initiates around 3-5pm west of a line from Great Bend to Coldwater. As those push northeast, they will move into an incredibly ripe atmosphere and have warm front dynamics to enhance low-level flow.

Details

319 Comments

  1. Dean Jones May 17, 2017
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