A COMPLICATED SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE AND WARM SECTOR. AS A RESULT...THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
The first SPC outlook issued this morning highlights the challenge of today. We've known for some time that in the large picture today is to be a high-impact day. But the devil is in the details, and the details which mean the difference between 2" and 4" hail or a weak tornado and a strong one often affect areas smaller than the models can forecast more than a few hours. And the issue of whether the cap gets broken at all is dependent on processes the models have frequently had difficulties with...boundaries left over from storms this morning and whether the cloud deck erodes in time to get good heating are but two examples.
The key thought is, once any storm gets going today, it is likely to become severe very quickly and remain severe for quite a while. Much like a bundle of wood soaked in gasoline. Without a match, there won't be a fire...but strike the match and anything nearby is going to get burned. Bad analogies aside, anyone east of a Russell to Pratt line needs to be weather aware this afternoon and evening.